LET’S GOOOOO!!! This movie year has been absolute FIRE and I am ready for one of my favorite times of the year. Let’s get this rolling!

As I did last year, I’ve got two selections for each category; what I believe will win and what I personally think should win.

Actor in a Leading Role: Austin Butler in ELVIS – Colin Farrell in THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN – Brendan Fraser in THE WHALE – Paul Mescal in AFTERSUN – Bill Nighy in LIVING

Will win: Austin Butler in ELVIS
Should win: Austin Butler in ELVIS

No disrespect to Bill Nighy but everyone in this category absolutely belongs here. Top tier performances all around. The top three seem to be Butler, Fraser, and Farrell, but for me, the winner is Austin Butler. I’ve had this stance for a long time now and it isn’t about to change.

Actor in a Supporting Role: Brendan Gleeson in THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN – Brian Tyree Henry in CAUSEWAY – Judd Hirsch in THE FABELMANS – Barry Keoghan in THE BANSHESS OF INISHERIN – Ke Huy Quan in EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Will win: Ke Huy Quan in EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Should win: Ke Huy Quan in EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

KE HUY QUANNNNNNNNNN!!!! He does it all in EEAAO. For me, there is one particular moment in the movie that brought tears to my eyes. He’s been my choice since day one and he’s going to continue to roll. Special SPECIAL shoutout to Brian Tyree Henry and Barry Keoghan. They were incredible in their roles as well and equally put in moving performances.

Actress in a Leading Role: Cate Blanchett in TÁR – Ana De Aramas – BLONDE – Andrea Riseborough in TO LESLIE – Michelle Williams in THE FABELMANS – Michelle Yeoh in EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Will win: Cate Blanchett
Should win: Michelle Yeoh

Probably one of the hardest categories of the night. This is going to be cut REAL close. I’ve had a feeling that Cate will win this for a long time even despite the train that Michelle Yeoh has been running. I think the Academy is going to nod to Cate despite Michelle’s momentum. However, personally I am absolutely okay with Michelle continuing her reign of dominance because this woman deserves this win. She’s Hollywood royalty, EEAAO is a showcase of every single one of her talents. She deserves it, Cate deserves it. Can we break the trophy in half?

Actress in a Supporting Role: Angela Bassett in BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER – Hong Chau in THE WHALE – Kerry Condon in THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN – Jamie Lee Curtis in EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE – Stephanie Hsu in EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis in EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Should win: Angela Bassett in BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER

This one is going to hurt. Jamie has run this category for much of award season. As I said about Michelle Yeoh, Jamie is also Hollywood royalty. I’m pretty confident she wins this. However, Angela Bassett’s performance is one of the few standouts of BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER and even beyond just the movie, it’s one of the best supporting performances of the year. I think she has the capability to sneak a win, but I really think Jamie continues to take the win.

Animated Feature Film: GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO – MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON – PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH – THE SEA BEAST – TURNING RED

Will win: GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO
Should win: GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO

This year’s nominees are incredible all around. Typically some nominees here are far low on my totem pole but this year was fire. Of them all, GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO moved me to tears and is just an all around phenomenal film. It takes the win.

Cinematography: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – BARDO, THE FALSE CHRONICLE OF A HANDFUL OF TRUTHS – ELVIS – EMPIRE OF LIGHT – TÁR

Will win: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Should win: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT

I don’t have too much knowledge here. ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT was an incredible looking movie. I think EMPIRE OF LIGHT could squeak in for a win due to the magic man that is Roger Deakins.

Costume Design: BABYLON – BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER – ELVIS – EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE – MRS. HARRIS GOES TO PARIS

Will win: BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
Should win: BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER or ELVIS

Ruth Carter takes it again here just as she did for the first BLACK PANTHER movie. Personally, it’s a push for either BLACK PANTHER or ELVIS. The costume design is as magnificent as it was in the first movie but the design in ELVIS helped transport viewers to Elvis’ era.

Directing: Martin McDonagh for THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE – Steven Spielberg for THE FABELMANS – Todd Field for TÁR – Ruben Östlund for TRIANGLE OF SADNESS

Will win: The Daniels for EEAAO
Should win: The Daniels for EEAAO

Another majorly tough one. Everyone could sneak in for a win here. I think the odds favorite The Daniels and EEAAO taking the win. They have made a film that is going to remain in the history books for a long time. Spielberg could play spoiler as you can never count him out and the Academy loves him.

Documentary Feature Film: ALL THAT BREATHES – ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED – FIRE OF LOVE – A HOUSE MADE OF SPLINTERS – NAVALNY

Will win: NAVALNY
Should win: N/A

No knowledge here. I saw FIRE OF LOVE and wasn’t overly moved by it.

Documentary Short Film: THE ELEPHANT WHISPERERS – HAULOUT – HOW DO YOU MEASURE A YEAR? – THE MARTHA MITCHELL EFFECT – STRANGER AT THE GATE

Will win: THE ELEPHANT WHISPERERS
Should win: N/A

No knowledge here. Shot in the dark

Film Editing: Mikkel E.G. Nielsen for THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN – Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond for ELVIS – Paul Rogers for EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE – Monika Willi for TÁR – Eddie Hamilton for TOP GUN: MAVERICK

Will win: EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Should win: EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Listen, EEAAO should win, no doubt. When I saw the movie, that was actually one of the first things I thought to myself was that this damn movie needs the editing award IF ANYTHING. It has a tough fight ahead of it, but I think it takes the W.

International Feature Film: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – ARGENTINA, 1985 – CLOSE – EO – THE QUIET GIRL

Will win: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Should win: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT

There’s a trend that I follow until the day I die: When an International Feature Film nominee is nominated for a Best Picture as well, it wins. Sure ARGENTINA, 1958 won in some other shows but we’re not talking other shows. We’re talking about The Oscars. Winner, ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT.

Makeup and Hairstyling: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – THE BATMAN – BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA PANTHER – ELVIS – THE WHALE

Will win: ELVIS
Should win: ELVIS

People, this was hard as hell to break down. Everyone is a titan of this category for their own reasons. I’m going for will win and should win for ELVIS due to the amount of natural makeup and hair talent that went into the project as a whole AND the prosthetic work to get Austin to the late life Elvis look. THE WHALE coming in a close second for “will win”. However THE BATMAN is my ultra close “should win” second

Music (Original Score): ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – BABYLON – THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN – EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE – THE FABELMANS

Will win: BABYLON
Should win: BABYLON

Not a doubt in my heart. Justin Hurwitz has run this category every time he’s on it. This is a new age John Williams in the making.

Music (Orinial Song): Tell It Like a Woman from APPLAUSE – Hold my Hand from TOP GUN: MAVERICK – Lift Me Up from BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER – Naatu Naatu from RRR – This is a Life from EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Will win: Naatu Naatu
Should win: Naatu Naatu

RRR WAS SNUBBED! Naatu Naatu and there are no questions.

Production Design: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER – BABYLON – ELVIS – THE FABELMANS

Will win: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Should win: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT floored me with it’s production quality and obviously that includes the MASSIVE production design. I don’t think there’s even competition for this.

Short Film (Animated): THE BOY, THE MOLE, THE FOX AND THE HORSE – THE FLYING SAILOR – ICE MERCHANTS – MY YEAR OF DICKS – AN OSTRICH TOLD ME THE WORLD IS FAKE AND I THINK I BELIEVE IT

Will win: THE BOY, THE MOLE, THE FOX AND THE HORSE
Should win: N/A

No knowledge

Short Film (Live Action): AN IRISH GOODBYE – IVALU – LE PUPILLE – NIGHT RIDE – THE RED SUITCASE

Will win: LE PUPILLE
Should win: N/A

No knowledge

Sound: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER – THE BATMAN – ELVIS – TOP GUN: MAVERICK

Will win: TOP GUN: MAVERICK
Should win: TOP GUN: MAVERICK

Another hotly contested category. I think TOP GUN takes it, but THE BATMAN is hella close at 2nd place.

Visual Effects: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER – THE BATMAN – BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER – TOP GUN: MAVERICK

Will win: AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
Should win: AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER

THEY INVENTED TECHNOLOGY FOR THIS MOVIE. There is no debate for the win.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY – LIVING – TOP GUN: MAVERICK – WOMEN TALKING

Will win: WOMEN TALKING
Should win: WOMEN TALKING

Not much to say here. I think ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT is a close second for my should win but I’m very satisfied with a WOMEN TALKING win.

Writing (Original Screenplay): THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN – EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE – THE FABELMANS – TÁR – TRIANGLE OF SADNESS

Will win: EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Should win: EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONE

This one is going to be fun to watch. I think EEAAO takes it but man could I argue for INISHERIN or THE FABELMANS.

BEST PICTURE:

Will win: THE FABELMANS
Should win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

WOOOOOOO CONTROVERSY!!! Hear me out… This is another gut feeling I’ve had since the nominations. Despite the avalanching momentum that EEAAO is currently on, the odds are going to be wrong and Steven Spielberg wins Best Picture with his personal love story that he’s been building his entire career. Don’t get me wrong, I hope and will love if the odds are right and EEAAO takes the win, but I’m sticking with my gut.

Honestly, this is a wonderful line-up. I have the upmost respect for even my least favorable film in TÁR. 10/10 all the way around.

Oberrated power rankings!!!
1. The Fabelmans
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Tár
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. Elvis
9. Triangle of Sadness
10. Women Talking

As always, I’ll be tweeting far too much on Twitter during the awards show! See you then!

References:
https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2023




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