2022 Oberrated Oscar Predictions

IT’S THE MOVIE SUPER BOWLLLL!!!! I always get so excited for this time for these expertly crafted films. In a year that was in recovery following one of the strangest film years, 2021 was a great time.

I’ll be switching it up from my previous format. I won’t have a sleeper pick cause it’s kind of useless. I will have the true prediction of what I will think the Academy will pick (which will be the one that counts toward my score.) Then I will have what I feel should win… AKA my personal favorite. LET’S DIG IN!

Writing (Original Screenplay): BELFAST – DON’T LOOK UP – KING RICHARD – LICORICE PIZZA – THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD

Academy pick: LICORICE PIZZA
Oberrated pick: KING RICHARD

I’d probably pick THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD to win if I saw it because I heard glowing reviews of it. Personally, I feel KING RICHARD or DON’T LOOK UP should win. Getting vibes PTA takes it for LICORICE PIZZA because he won’t win much else.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): CODA – DRIVE MY CAR – DUNE – THE LOST DAUGHTER – THE POWER OF THE DOG

Academy pick: THE POWER OF THE DOG
Oberrated pick: DRIVE MY CAR

Jane Campion is going to take a number of awards home tonight. I think the Academy loves this movie and it’ll take it here. Personally, Hamaguchi made a 3 hour long, delicate, and well thought-out piece out of a short film. Excellent vision and work.

Visual Effects: DUNE – FREE GUY (lol) – NO TIME TO DIE – SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS – SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME

Academy pick: DUNE
Oberrated pick: DUNE

Respect to Marvel on this, these two films are excellent work on the visual effects. DUNE takes it no questions. It itself is a marvel.

Sound: BELFAST – DUNE – NO TIME TO DIE – THE POWER OF THE DOG – WEST SIDE STORY

Academy pick: DUNE
Oberrated pick: DUNE

I had a inkling NO TIME TO DIE could take this, but I’m confident DUNE is going to decisively take a lot of productions awards.

Short Film (Live Action): ALA KACHUU TAKE AND RUN – THE DRESS – THE LONG GOODBYE – ON MY MIND – PLEASE HOLD

Academy pick: THE DRESS

Didn’t see any of these. Shooting blind on this one.

Short FIlm (Animated): AFFAIRS OF THE ART – BESTIA – BOXBALLET – ROBIN ROBIN – THE WINDSHIELD WIPER

Academy pick: BOXBALLET

I only saw ROBIN ROBIN and I was not impressed. I also don’t get the vibe the Academy would vote it in. Shooting blind for BOXBALLET.

Production Design: DUNE – NIGHTMARE ALLEY – THE POWER OF THE DOG – THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH – WEST SIDE STORY

Academy pick: DUNE
Oberrated pick: DUNE and NIGHTMARE ALLEY just a tad behind it.

Again, DUNE is a production marvel. The set pieces were insane with its sci-fi futuristic feel. However, I loved NIGHTMARE ALLEY and its classic style. I’d be happy with either of those winning.

Music (Original Song): “Be Alive” from KING RICHARD – “Dos Oruguitas” from ENCANTO – “Down To Joy” from BELFAST – “No Time To Die” from NO TIME TO DIE – “Somehow You Do” from FOUR GOOD DAYS

Academy pick: “No Time To Die”
Oberrated pick: “No Time To Die”

Sure ENCANTO is sweeping the world with its Bruno song, but this isn’t that song. The Academy loves Billie and this song is excellent. I’m going with my gut.

Music (Original Score): DON’T LOOK UP – DUNE – ENCANTO – PARALLEL MOTHERS – THE POWER OF THE DOG

Academy pick: DUNE
Oberrated pick: DUNE

Hans Zimmer without question.

Makeup and Hairstyling: COMING 2 AMERICA – CRUELLA – DUNE – THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE – HOUSE OF GUCCI

Academy pick: THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
Oberrated pick: CRUELLA

I have a strange vibe THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE takes it and I do not know why. My heart wants and thinks CRUELLA has a chance.

International Feature Film: DRIVE MY CAR – FLEE – THE HAND OF GOD – LUNANA: A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM – THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD

Academy pick: DRIVE MY CAR
Oberrated pick: DRIVE MY CAR

This category makes me laugh sometimes. In recent years an international film is up for Best Picture and International Film, and I always say if the film is good enough to compete for Best Picture, what makes you think it won’t win for International against films that aren’t nominated for Best Picture? DRIVE MY CAR and it isn’t close.

Film Editing: DON’T LOOK UP – DUNE – KING RICHARD – THE POWER OF THE DOG – TICK, TICK…BOOM!

Academy pick: DUNE
Oberrated pick: TICK, TICK…BOOM!

This is a tough as hell category. Very strong nominees across the board. I’m going with my previous statement that DUNE is a force and will win here. I want TICK, TICK…BOOM! because I thought the way it was editing and presented was clever and I loved it.

Documentary (Short Subject): AUDIBLE – LEAD ME HOME – THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL – THREE SONGS FOR BENAZIR – WHEN WE WERE BULLIES

Academy pick: THE QUEEN OF BASEKETBALL

Didn’t see any of these. I’m going with influence that THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL takes it.

Documentary (Feature): ASCENSION – ATTICA – FLEE – SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED) – WRITING WITH FIRE

Academy pick: FLEE
Oberrated pick: FLEE

I freaking loved FLEE. It’s incredible and moving. SUMMER OF SOUL really has a chance though to spoil.

Directing: Kenneth Branagh for BELFAST – Ryusuke Hamaguchi for DRIVE MY CAR – Paul Thomas Anderson for LICORICE PIZZA – Jane Campion for THE POWER OF THE DOG – Steven Spielberg for WEST SIDE STORY

Academy pick: Ryusuke Hamaguchi for DRIVE MY CAR
Oberrated pick: Ryusuke Hamaguchi for DRIVE MY CAR

Here’s a hot take. Jane Campion is the favorite, BUT… I believe DRIVE MY CAR won’t win Best Picture. However, the Academy will love this movie enough to grant it a win and this is where it will do it. Just to trend with its culture change and vibes going toward international film.

Costume Design: CRUELLA – CYRANO – DUNE – NIGHTMARE ALLEY – WEST SIDE STORY

Academy pick: CRUELLA
Oberrated pick: CRUELLA

This is another tough one, but I think the effort that went into the production, and especially costume and make-up, will get CRUELLA the win. WEST SIDE STORY could sneak away with it if I had a second guess. All are very strong though.

Cinematography: DUNE – NIGHTMARE ALLEY – THE POWER OF THE DOG – THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH – WEST SIDE STORY

Academy pick: DUNE
Oberrated pick: THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

Holy tough, Batman. Going with my gut again that DUNE walks away with it after heavily thinking this one over. Personally, I had a harder time picking what should win. I loved WEST SIDE STORY. That’s all I could think about was the color palette and how incredible the film looked. BUT, I also went to the end of the world and back singing about how gorgeous THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH looked, and that’s my pick. I’m honestly happy with any of these though.

Animated Feature Film: ENCANTO – FLEE – LUCA – THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES – RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON

Academy pick: ENCANTO
Oberrated pick: THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES

I literally like all of the other animated films over what I predict the Academy will pick. ENCANTO is good, but I just didn’t love it. THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES is simply phenomenal and I loved it. I also loved all of the other nominees. I’d honestly take all of the others over ENCANTO.

Actress in a Supporting Role: Jessie Buckley in THE LOST DAUGHTER – Ariana DeBose in WEST SIDE STORY – Judi Dench in BELFAST – Kirsten Dunst in THE POWER OF THE DOG – Aunjanue Ellis in KING RICHARD

Academy pick: Aunjanue Ellis in KING RICHARD
Oberrated pick: Jessie Buckley in THE LOST DAUGHTER

Honestly not against any of these nominees. I’ll be really happy if Aunjanue wins because she was excellent in KING RICHARD, but I felt more affected by Jessie Buckley in THE LOST DAUGHTER. Easily the biggest performance in THE LOST DAUGHTER.

Actress in a Leading Role: Jessica Chastain in THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE – Olivia Colman in THE LOST DAUGHTER – Penélope Cruz in PARALLEL MOTHERS – Nicole Kidman in BEING THE RICARDOS – Kristen Stewart in SPENCER

Academy pick: Jessica Chastain in THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
Oberrated pick: Jessica Chastain in THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE

This one hurt because DEEPER in my heart, I want Kristen Stewart. She poured her soul into replicating Princess Diana. HOWEVER, I literally went into THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE thinking, “Alright, this is where I am going to find a performance the should be replaced in the leading actress category.” Then about 15 minutes in I said to my girlfriend, “Damn, she’s fkn good.” Chastain decisively.

Actor in a Supporting Role: Ciarán Hinds in BELFAST – Troy Kotsur in CODA – Jesse Plemons in THE POWER OF THE DOG – J.K. Simmons in BEING THE RICARDOS – Kodi Smit-McPhee in THE POWER OF THE DOG

Academy pick: Troy Kotsur in CODA
Oberrated pick: Troy Kotsur in CODA

Months ago I would and did say Kodi Smit-McPhee and it isn’t close. After the recent surge for CODA and having watched it, Troy is the MVP. I think he pulls off the win here and also because CODA won’t win Best Picture.

Actor in a Leading Role: Javier Bardem in BEING THE RICARDOS – Benedict Cumberbatch in THE POWER OF THE DOG – Andrew Garfield in TICK, TICK…BOOM! – Will Smith in KING RICHARD – Denzel Washington in THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

Academy pick: Andrew Garfield in TICK, TICK…BOOM!
Oberrated pick: Andrew Garfield in TICK, TICK…BOOM!

HOT TAKE ALERT! Will Smith is the favorite, and I will one-hundred percent not be upset if he truly does win. However, Chadwick Boseman was the heavily favored one to win in his year than Anthony Hopkins took it for THE FATHER. After I watched THE FATHER, I understood. I get the vibe that this could happen again. Garfield is in incredible form for TICK, TICK…BOOM! I was floored by his performance. He’s a multi-threat talent, and Smith is incredible, but he’s done this before. I really think Garfield may steal this one.
Side note, I freaking love everyone in this category and especially loved Denzel. He’s just against too good of performances this year.

Best Picture:

Academy pick: THE POWER OF THE DOG
Oberrated pick: DUNE

This is the only spot that Campion and THE POWER OF THE DOG really wins. I think old Academy and new Academy will jointly celebrate it despite my not so resounding reception of the film. I had a harder time picking what I want to win because I really loved a number of these and can argue why others could actually win it. If this were the Oberrated awards, NIGHTMARE ALLEY wins. But of them all, I think the biggest achievement in film for this collection is what Denis Villeneuve and company did with DUNE.

A ranking of how I think the Academy would vote:
1. THE POWER OF THE DOG
2. CODA
3. DON’T LOOK UP
4. DRIVE MY CAR
5. KING RICHARD
6. LICORICE PIZZA
7. WEST SIDE STORY
8. DUNE
9. BELFAST
10. NIGHTMARE ALLEY

Catch me on Twitter tonight live tweeting the show! I’m sure to freak out as I always do. LET’S HAVE SOME FUN!

References:
https://abc.com/shows/oscars/news/nominations/oscar-nominations-2022-list




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