2021 Oberrated Oscar Predictions

As if everyone hasn’t already heard this a thousand times; this has not exactly been a normal year for movies. Clearly that transfers to the award season being quite wonky. But hey! The Best Picture line-up is still quite impressive, in my opinion, as well as in all the other categories.

As always, I will break down each category from what I believe the Academy will pick. Which will be the prediction that matters most in regards to me guessing accurately. I will also have my personal picks if it differs from my Academy predictions, and I will have an underdog prediction for the fun of it. In these breakdowns, I will have some explanations in most cases and they will be spoiler heavy.

Best Picture Nominees:

Personal Pick: I’m pretty open to everything besides “Mank.”
Academy Pick: Nomadland
Underdog Steal: Promising Young Woman

I’m pretty in favor of all these films besides “Mank” to win. I really loved all these films. However, I feel strongly that the Academy may pick “Nomadland.” Yet, I think it is pretty open. Which is kind of a cool thing because typically there is one strong expectation for who wins.

As for the underdog with a chance, I see “Promising Young Woman” as the black sheep. It is a subject that is important to the times and it was a damn good movie overall.

Actor in a Leading Role: Riz Ahmed – Chadwick Boseman – Anthony Hopkins – Gary Oldman – Steven Yeun

Personal Pick: Chadwick Boseman
Academy Pick: Chadwick Boseman
Underdog Steal: Steven Yeun

It is almost a shoe-in that Chadwick takes this. He has swept just about all the previous shows. His performance was damn worth the wins. And it is the proper way to send off his acting legacy.
In regards to the other nominees, it is a damn shame they put out these performances in a year that Chadwick ran the show. All the other guys were phenomenal. If I could pick anyone else outside of Chadwick, I would have to go with Anthony Hopkins with Steven and Riz very close behind.

Actor in a Supporting Role: Sacha Baron Cohen – Daniel Kaluuya – Leslie Odom, Jr. – Paul Raci – LaKeith Stanfield

Personal Pick: Daniel Kaluuya
Academy Pick: Daniel Kaluuya
Underdog Steal: LaKeith Stanfield

Another fantastic grouping of performances. Kaluuya has been a favorite of mine in Hollywood for recent years. I said in my review of “Judas and the Black Messiah” that I believe this is going to be the standard that Kaluuya will have to beat for future performances because he was electric.
As for the underdog steal, this award show was one of the first to put both LaKeith and Daniel in the same category. So if there was enough voting power to get LaKeith in, maybe there is enough voting power for a sneaky win.

Actress in a Leading Role: Viola Davis – Andra Day – Vanessa Kirby – Frances McDormand – Carey Mulligan

Personal Pick: Viola Davis
Academy Pick: Carey Mulligan
Underdog Steal: Frances McDormand

I was blown away by Viola in Ma Rainey’s. Personally, that’s my girl for the show. However, this is a hotly contested category, so I could see this going any way. For the prediction, I am shooting in the dark for a Carey Mulligan win, but again, I see anyone winning.
Frances is my underdog because she hasn’t exactly been the decisive prediction for the win but I would never count her out.

Actress in a Supporting Role: Maria Bakalova – Glenn Close – Olivia Colman – Amanda Seyfried – Yuh-Jung Youn

Personal Pick: Yuh-Jung Youn
Academy Pick: Yuh-Jung Youn
Underdog Steal: Maria Bakalova

YUH-JUNG YOUN AND THERE IS NO OTHER CHOICE! Sorry, my passion runs deep for Youn’s performance. I think the Academy will see the same. Otherwise, for an underdog steal, I could see Maria taking a surprise “W” since she has had success in prior award shows.

Animated Feature Film: Onward – Over the Moon – A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon – Soul – Wolfwalkers

Personal Pick: Soul
Academy Pick: Soul
Underdog Steal: Onward

98% sure on this one. “Soul” takes the win easily. “Onward” is the underdog since it was the movie that everyone loved for three seconds and forgot about. Still a great movie though.

P.S. Shaun the Sheep…. Really?…

Cinematography: Judas and the Black Messiah – Mank – News of the World – Nomadland – The Trail of the Chicago 7

Personal Pick: Nomadland
Academy Pick: Mank
Underdog Steal: News of the World

I am hard split on this one. The Academy loves their Fincher cinema. Then there is the absolute beauty that was “Nomadland”.
As for the underdog, The Academy also loves their Oscar bait westerns. So “News of the World” it is.

Costume Design: Emma – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Mank – Mulan – Pinocchio

Personal Pick: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Academy Pick: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Underdog Steal: Emma

I can see the Academy going with Ma Rainey’s or “Mank” for this one. I will be a little upset if “Mank” wins because I was not entirely impressed by it, and it was odd for no reason at all, in my opinion.
As for the steal, “Emma” has Oscar style all over it.

Directing: Another Round – Mank – Minari – Nomadland – Promising Young Woman

Personal Pick: Another Round, Thomas Vinterberg
Academy Pick: Nomadland, Chloé Zhao
Underdog Steal: Minari, Lee Isaac Chung

Vinterberg holds a very warm and loving spot in my heart. As much as I loved some of the other nominees, my personal pick has to be “Another Round.” However, the trend is going to continue and Chloé Zhao will win, and rightfully so.
The steal goes to Lee Isaac Chung because I feel the Academy could love this movie enough as well as them wanting to recreate the viral reaction to when Chung won in earlier award shows.

Documentary: Collective – Crip Camp – The Mole Agent – My Octopus Teacher – Time

Personal Pick: Crip Camp
Academy Pick: Crip Camp
Underdog Steal: N/A

I do not have working knowledge of this category. I have heard “Crip Camp” is fantastic. I also have heard “The Mole Agent” has made impressive waves. So those are my top two.

Documentary (Short Subject): Colette – A Concerto is a Conversation – Do Not Split – Hunger Ward – A Love Song For Latasha

Personal Pick: Do Not Spit
Academy Pick: Hunger Ward
Underdog Steal: N/A

No working knowledge

Film Editing: The Father – Nomadland – Promising Young Woman – Sound of Metal – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Personal Pick: The Father
Academy Pick: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Underdog Steal: Promising Young Woman

I think “The Father” is the superior film in this category. However, I think the Academy will give this one to The Trial.

International Feature Film: Another Round – Better Days – Collective – The Man Who Sold His Skin – Quo Vadis, Aida?

Personal Pick: Another Round
Academy Pick: Another Round
Underdog Steal: Quo Vadis, Aida?

This is a scenario where typically an International Feature Film nominee that is also nominated in a “larger” category (I.e. Directing, Beat Picture, etc.) wins this category. So I am expecting “Another Round” to take this one and I am 100% on board for it. Although waves have been made by “Quo Vadis, Aida?” and I wouldn’t be shocked if it nabs the steal.

Makeup and Hairstyling: Emma – Hillbilly Elegy – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Mank – Pinocchio

Personal Pick: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Academy Pick: Emma
Underdog Steal: Mank

Ma Rainey’s continues to be a favorite of mine. A gut feeling yells “Emma” wins. An annoying pain in my stomach says “Mank” steals.

Music (Original Score): Da 5 Bloods – Mank – Minari – News of the World – Soul

Personal Pick: Soul
Academy Pick: Soul
Underdog Steal: Mank

It’s a movie about a jazz musician? C’mon? We’ll see, Otherwise, “Mank,” for some annoying reason.

Music (Original Score): Fight For You (Judas and the Black Messiah), Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Husavik (Eurovision). Io Si [Seen] (The Life Ahead), Speak Now (One Night in Miami)

Personal Pick: Fight For You
Academy Pick: Speak Now
Underdog Steal: Husavik

Loved the music behind “Judas and the Black Messiah.” “Hear My Voice” seems powerful enough as well as fitting the Academy’s style. Lastly, if there was enough votes to put “Husavik” through to the nominees, maybe there is enough votes for a steal.

Production Design: The Father – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Mank – News of the World – Tenet

Personal Pick: Tenet
Academy Pick: Mank
Underdog Steal: News of the World

Loved “Tenet.” Loved how the designed worked for the movie. Yet, it won’t win. “Mank” seems like the right film for this category. The steal goes to the western film.

Short Film (Animated): Burrow – Genius Loci – If Anything Happens I Love You – Opera – Yes-People

Personal Pick: If Anything Happens I Love You
Academy Pick: If Anything Happens I Love You
Underdog Steal: N/A

I only really know about “If Anything Happens I Love You.” However, I know it is a powerful short that has caught a lot of attention. Otherwise, I do not have much knowledge or educated guesses here.

Short Film (Live Action): Feeling Through – The Letter Room – The Present – Two Distant Strangers – White Eye

Personal Pick: N/A
Academy Pick: White Eye
Underdog Steal: N/A

No working knowledge here.

Sound: Greyhound – Mank – News of the World – Soul – Sound of Metal

Personal Pick: Sound of Metal
Academy Pick: Sound of Metal
Underdog Steal: Soul

“Sound of Metal” and there should be no other choice.

Visual Effects: Love and Monsters – The Midnight Sky – Mulan – The One and Only Ivan – Tenet

Personal Pick: Tenet
Academy Pick: The Midnight Sky
Underdog Steal: Love and Monsters

Listen, “Tenet” should be the winner, hands down, but it won’t win. I am unsure on a favored winner for this one so my Academy and Underdog choices do not have much weight to them.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – The Father – Nomadland – One Night in Miami – The White Tiger

Personal Pick: The Father
Academy Pick: Nomadland
Underdog Steal: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Keeping my love for “The Father” rolling here. I think “Nomadland” will continue to be the favorite by the Academy. Borat will continue to run spoiler for other films, if it wins.

Writing (Original Screenplay): Judas and the Black Messiah – Minari – Promising Young Woman – Sound of Metal – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Personal Pick: Minari
Academy Pick: Minari
Underdog Steal: Promising Young Woman

If “Minari” wins anywhere, I feel it is here. A story of love and struggle. The Academy eats it up. However, every nominee is so strong here. It is anyone’s game.

8pm EST for The Oscars, errybody! I will be on Twitter, per usual, Twitter handle OberratedReview! Thanks for reading as usual and enjoy the show!

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