2019 Oberrated Oscar Predictions

91st OscarsPicture from https://consequenceofsound.net/2019/02/oscars-2019-no-host/

Now with the 4th annual Oberrated Oscar Predictions! It is time to roll them on out for the 2019 Oscars!

As I look over my previous year’s predictions, I see I have a trend; I suck at making my own deadline. However, it is not missing my deadline if I am pumping all my content out on the same day, right? RIGHT!

This year’s Best Picture nominees are quite impressive, I have to say myself. Last year, you could look at titles and know that some films did not have chance to take the title. This year is a different story. I look at this line-up and I think, “damn, this can really go any way”. From cultural phenomenon, agenda pushing pieces, unreal individual and team performances, and simply downright incredible works of art. These nominees are bringing the heat.

With this post, I am going to give the Oberrated perspective on what I believe will happen on The Oscars and overall my predictions for each category. I will provide a brief breakdown on each category, as I always have. Lastly, this is your SPOILER WARNING because some breakdowns may have some spoilers in order to explain my position. So! Here we go!
Best Picture Nominees:
Click on the poster for the Oberrated review!

Black Panther

roma

Green Book

Favourite The

Bohemian Rhapsody

Blackkklansman

vice

A Star is Born

Personal Pick: Green Book, Roma, or BlacKkKlansman
Academy Pick: Roma
Underdog Steal: Bohemian Rhapsody

As I said before, the Best Picture nominees this year are a mostly incredible set of films. Too often one could look at the nominees and instantly slate out 4 or more of them from contention. While some may be able to argue that that concept does exist this year, I am willing to debate a different side.
Personally, my picks for “Green Book”, “Roma”, or “BlacKkKlansman” are my personal top three for the win. These three films are what I found to be the most interesting and powerful films of the list.
“Green Book” is an excellent showcase of talent between Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali. Next to them, the film as a whole is just a strong and cohesive piece of film that flows effortlessly.
“Roma” is quite possibly the most artistically beautiful and sound film of all other nominees. Director Alfonso Cuarón pieces together a film that barely any other director could create in regards to the delicateness and attention to detail “Roma” accomplishes.
“BlacKkKlansman” is what I would call a perfect blend of storytelling and entertainment. It is hilarious, it is dramatic and tense, and it is real. While being a biopic, I found myself separated from that fact and completely invested in the story Spike Lee and company were telling. This perfect blend of film is achieved in only “BlacKkKlansman” and “Green Book”, in my opinion.

For my true prediction, I am honestly hard split on this. Right now, I am leaning towards “Roma” being the academy’s pick simply on how well Cuarón’s “Gravity” did in a previous year. As well as how the academy lovessss creative and artistic works.
Aside from “Roma”, I could see “Vice” winning just because the academy loves pushing their agenda and “Vice” is quite literally agenda pushing.
A safe bet would also be “Green Book” as it is a completely sound film.

The underdog for Best Picture could quite literally be any of the “lesser” regarded films. I peg “Bohemian Rhapsody” as my top choice for underdog because of the Bryan Singer controversy. While the film is a fan favorite and quite an entertaining piece, I believe it has a mountain to climb over with the current Hollywood climate and the Singer accusations.
Other notable underdog films would be “A Star is Born” for its fan-fare and impact on viewers. The other would be “Black Panther” for its ground-breaking effect on the culture all over the world.
Actor In A Leading Role: Christian Bale – Bradley Cooper – Willem Dafoe – Rami Malek – Viggo Mortensen

Personal Pick: Rami Malek
Academy Pick: Christian Bale
Underdog Steal: Willem Dafoe

My personal pick is a no contest. While I loved Cooper and Mortensen, I feel the two did not have to do that much transformation for their roles. I did not see Dafoe but I am sure he was great. Bale is outstanding but Rami truly transformed into Freddie Mercury. His charisma, his dedication to the role, and the sheer enjoyment I got from watching him makes this an easy personal choice.

For the Academy, it is a close tie but I feel as if the upset may happen where they choose Bale over Malek. One, for their agenda and two, for the physical transformation Bale went through and the complete abandonment of Christian Bale to become Dick Cheney.
Actress In A Leading Role: Yalitza Aparicio – Glenn Close – Olivia Colman – Lady Gaga – Melissa McCarthy

Personal Pick: Lady Gaga
Academy Pick: Glenn Close
Underdog Steal: Melissa McCarthy

My personal pick is Lady Gaga but primarily on the fact that I am infatuated with her range of talent. She gives her 100% in everything she does and is an unreal performer. In total, I have only seen three performers of the five. I wish I had the time to catch “The Wife” to see the supposed rock star performance that Glenn Close puts on. Which is exactly what leads me to my next point…

I believe Glenn Close takes this award without a doubt. I am sure it is down between Gaga and Close but something tells me Close takes it. It will definitely be a……….Close….call.
Actor In A Supporting Role: Mahershala Ali – Adam Driver – Sam Elliott – Richard E. Grant – Sam Rockwell

Personal Pick: Mahershala Ali
Academy Pick: Mahershala Ali
Underdog Steal: Sam Elliott

Most of you know I love Mahershala Ali. The man puts forth outstanding performances with every single one he takes. “Green Book” is no exception to that statement as he is a powerhouse. So sophisticated and proper but raw at the turn of an instant. I thoroughly believe he takes it from my point of view and the Academy’s.

For the underdog, I do not believe Driver and Rockwell put forth enough of an effort to win despite my opinion on Driver deserving it. Rockwell definitely does not put the effort for the win nor does he have the convincing screen time for it. I did not see Richard E. Grant in “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”. But Elliott has quite the pivotal moment in “A Star Is Born” to be recognized and maybe even steal this one.
Actress In A Supporting Role: Amy Adams – Marina de Tavira – Regina King – Emma Stone – Rachel Weisz

Personal Pick: Rachel Weisz
Academy Pick: Rachel Weisz
Underdog Steal: Amy Adams

Among these nominees, I firmly believe Rachel Weisz should win this uncontested. Despite not seeing Regina King in “If Beale Street Could Talk”, Rachel is leagues better than her counterparts, putting on a performance of strength, conviction, and an undying attitude.

As a steal, Amy Adams in “Vice” could very well take the award as Amy had a number of convincing and strong moments in the film, including her pivotal speech near the start of “Vice”.
Animated Feature Film: Incredibles 2 – Isle of Dogs – Mira – Ralph Break the Internet – Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse

Personal Pick: Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
Academy Pick: Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
Underdog Steal: Isle of Dogs

This is an awkward category for me because my personal pick is based solely on the brief moments I have seen from the film, how the previous award shows have chosen, and the technical wonder that the film is. “Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse” has swept the award shows and has stood its ground as an impressive animated film.

I pick “Isle of Dogs” as the underdog….ha…. and rightfully so as Wes Anderson is simply a mad genius. His films are always incredible in their own right. “Isle of Dogs” is nothing short of incredible itself. While it deserves the award, I believe Spider-Man simply can not be beat.
Cinematography: Cold War – The Favourite – Never Look Away – Roma – A Star is Born

Personal Pick: The Favourite
Academy Pick: Roma
Underdog Steal: A Star is Born

I have discussed with friends that “The Favourite” is a technical wonder in its production quality. The shots delivered from Robbie Ryan are quite amazing and beautiful. Although not a major fan of the film itself, I will not deny its quality.

I choose “Roma” as the Academy choice because, once again, the Academy loves Alfonso Cuarón and his production style.
Costume Design: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Black Panther – The Favourite – Mary Poppins Returns – Mary Queen of Scots

Personal Pick: Black Panther
Academy Pick: Mary Queen of Scots
Underdog Steal: Mary Poppins Returns

“Black Panther” is without a doubt my personal choice for this category. The costume design is both futuristic to fit the Wakandan style yet also a beautiful respect to African history.

For some reason I just feel the “Mary Queen of Scots” is an Academy type film to win Costume Design.
Directing: BlacKkKlansman, Spike Lee – Cold War, Pawet Pawlikowski – The Favourite, Yorgos Lanthimos – Roma, Alfonso Cuarón – Vice, Adam McKay

Personal Pick: Alfonso Cuarón or Spike Lee
Academy Pick: Alfonso Cuarón
Underdog Steal: Spike Lee

I am perfectly fine with either Alfonso Cuarón or Spike Lee taking this win. These two are undoubtedly my top two directors in this category for the films they created.

As for the Academy, once again… the Academy loves Alfonso Cuarón and I think he goes uncontested for this category.

I believe Spike is the possible underdog steal as he has made waves with “BlacKkKlansman” and has garnered quite the momentum throughout the awards season.
Documentary (Feature): Free Solo – Hale County This Morning, This Evening – Minding the Gap – Of Fathers and Sons – RBG

Academy Pick: Minding the Gap

I have not seen nor do I have much knowledge of the Feature Documentaries this year. Going solely on a blind guess, “Minding the Gap” is the Academy choice.
Documentary (Short Subject): Black Sheep – End Game – Lifeboat – A Night at The Garden – Period. End of Sentence.

Academy Pick: Period. End of Sentence.

Again, no knowledge of the nominees. Blind pick goes to “Period. End of Sentence.”
Film Editing: BlacKkKlansman – Bohemian Rhapsody – The Favourite – Green Book – Vice

Personal Pick: Bohemian Rhapsody
Academy Pick: Bohemian Rhapsody
Underdog Steal: BlacKkKlansman

Little supporting evidence for my picks here. I appreciated what I saw in “Bohemian Rhapsody” for film editing and that is my choice. Of the nominees, I also feel as if the Academy will go the route of “Bohemian Rhapsody”.
Foreign Language Film: Capernaum – Cold War – Never Look Away – Roma – Shoplifters

Personal Pick: Roma
Academy Pick: Roma
Underdog Steal: Cold War

Uncontested, “Roma” wins this category. You really think a film nominated for a Best Picture is gonna be beat by another film in a “lesser” category? I will eat my shoe if it loses.
Makeup and Hairstyling: Border – Mary Queen of Scots – Vice

Personal Pick: Mary Queen of Scots
Academy Pick: Vice
Underdog Steal: Border

HEYYYYY, THE “SUICIDE SQUAD” AWARD!!!

Just kidding, but anyway… Personally I enjoyed the makeup and hairstyling in “Mary Queen of Scots” moreso than “Vice”. While Christian Bale is completely unrecognizable as Dick Cheney. I still favor “Mary Queen of Scots”.

But let us be real, the Academy picks “Vice”, uncontested.
Music (Original Score): Black Panther – BlacKkKlansman – If Beale Street Could Talk – Isle of Dogs – Mary Poppins Returns

Personal Pick: Isle of Dogs
Academy Pick: If Beale Street Could Talk
Underdog Steal: Black Panther

“Isle of Dogs” and its score is unbelievable. I love it so much and that is simply my basis on my personal pick.

Something in my gut tells me Beale Street takes this award. But I do believe Isle could be chosen by the Academy but I also believe any of these could win.
Music (Original Song): “All The Stars”, Black Panther – “Ill Fight”, RBG – “The Place Where Lost Things Go”, Mary Poppins Returns – “Shallow”, A Star is Born – “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings”, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Personal Pick: “Shallow”, A Star is Born
Academy Pick: “Shallow”, A Star is Born
Underdog Steal: “All The Stars”, Black Panther

Love, love, love this song. It has swept the awards and I firmly believe it takes the win here.
Production Design: Black Panther – The Favourite – First Man – Mary Poppins Returns – Roma

Personal Pick: Black Panther
Academy Pick: Roma
Underdog Steal: First Man

Gorgeous and unreal production designs as brought to you by “Black Panther”. Definitely my choice to win.

The Academy loves Alfonso Cuarón.
Short Film (Animated): Animal Behaviour – Bao – Late Afternoon – One Small Step – Weekends

Personal Pick: BAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Academy Pick: Bao
Underdog Steal:

Oh…My….God…. I love “Bao” with all my heart. It struck a heart chord for me. No other short is even a thought to me.

Disney Pixar kills the short film game. I believe the Academy will recognize it.
Short Film (Live Action): Detainment – Fauve – Marguerite – Mother – Skin

Academy Pick: Skin

No knowledge here as well. Blind pick goes to “Skin”.
Sound Editing: Black Panther – Bohemian Rhapsody – First Man – A Quiet Place – Roma

Personal Pick: A Quiet Place
Academy Pick: Roma
Underdog Steal: Bohemian Rhapsody

“A Quiet Place” is a gem in my eyes. For it to be recognized here is wonderful but also for a category I firmly believe it has a chance.

The Academy loves Alfonso Cuarón.
Sound Mixing: Black Panther – Bohemian Rhapsody – First Man – Roma – A Star Is Born

Personal Pick: Bohemian Rhapsody
Academy Pick: Roma
Underdog Steal: Bohemian Rhapsody

No major basis on my choices here besides…. You guessed it! The Academy loves Alfonso Cuarón.
Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War – Christopher Robin – First Man – Ready Player One – Solo: A Star Wars Story

Personal Pick: Avengers: Infinity War
Academy Pick: Christopher Robin
Underdog Steal: Ready Player One

No major basis on picks.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – BlacKkKlansman – Can You Ever Forgive Me? – If Beale Street Could Talk – A Star is Born

Personal Pick: BlacKkKlansman
Academy Pick: If Beale Street Could Talk
Underdog Steal: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

No major basis on picks.
Writing (Original Screenplay): The Favourite – First Reformed – Green Book – Roma – Vice

Personal Pick: Green Book or First Reformed
Academy Pick: Roma
Underdog Steal: First Reformed

GIVE PAUL SCHRADER AN OSCAR

The Academy loves Alfonso Cuarón.

And with that, the fourth year of predictions are in the books! As always, I will be live tweeting from my account @OberratedReview! Should be a fun time tonight and I will be keeping track of my Academy pick predictions to see what I get right!

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