Annual Oberrated Oscar Predictions: Year 2

Another year, another round of Oberrated Oscar predictions! This year, I have significantly more knowledge of the pictures involved versus last year so let us see how well I do this time.

The films during this Oscar season have been phenomenal. Normally, I have a couple in the Best Picture category that I do not care for but this year I pleasantly enjoyed every film as well as many other films in a number of other categories.

I will be breaking down my selections for each category by my personal pick, what I think the Academy might pick, and what could possibly be the underdog pick. I will also have a brief explanation under most picks. So, let’s do this!

**Possible spoilers in the explanations, but if you’re here, I am hoping you’ve at least seen most of these.**

Best Picture Nominees: Arrival — Fences — Hacksaw Ridge — Hell or High Water — Hidden Figures — La La Land — Lion — Manchester by the Sea — Moonlight

Personal Pick: La La Land CORRECT… Wait… Wrong, Moonlight
Academy Pick: La La Land
Underdog Steal: Moonlight

I loved ‘La La Land’ with everything in my being. The story telling, the music (score and musical performance), and just every-damn-thing about it. The story is ultimately about relentlessly chasing your dreams no matter how many times you are told no. It hit home, it was emotional, it was my kind of film… Although, if ‘La La Land’ happened to lose, I would hope it would be to ‘Hacksaw Ridge’ because if there was any other film I felt passionately for, it was that one.

Actor in a Leading Role Nominees: Casey Affleck — Andrew Garfield — Ryan Gosling — Viggo Mortensen — Denzel Washington

Personal Pick: Denzel Washington WRONG Casey Affleck
Academy Pick: Denzel Washington… if not, Ryan Gosling
Underdog Steal: Andrew Garfield

This is the category that I believe ‘La La Land’ can lose outright. The Gos simply was outperformed in every instance. Now that is not saying he was not immaculate, others were just that much better. I personally choose Denzel because this man can PERFORM. I would like to hear anyone suggest any other actor that can deliver lines like Denzel did in ‘Fences’ the way he did. That is right, there is no one.

Actress in a Leading Role Nominees: Isabelle Huppert — Ruth Negga — Natalie Portman — Emma Stone — Meryl Streep

Personal Pick: Emma Stone CORRECT
Academy Pick: Emma Stone
Underdog Steal: Natalie Portman

I am about 100% certain on this one. Emma was simply magical in ‘La La Land’. She has been winning all over the board in recent award shows and she deserves it, IMO. I have heard great things about Natalie Portman in ‘Jackie’ but I just do not think it will be enough… Also, I am salty as hell Meryl Streep is in here. It should be Amy Adams. I don’t care. The old geezers in the Academy are the only reason why she is in this category.

Actor in a Supporting Role Nominees: Mahershala Ali — Jeff Bridges — Lucas Hedges — Dev Patel — Michael Shannon

Personal Pick: Mahershala Ali CORRECT
Academy Pick: Mahershala Ali
Underdog Steal: Lucas Hedges

For being in ‘Moonlight’ as minimally as Mahershala Ali was, his presence was felt. I loved him and his involvement in the story immensely and he deserves it. To be honest, this is one of the hardest categories for me because every one of these actors were fantastic. Every-single-one. If I could rank them personally, it would be, Ali – Bridges – Shannon – Hedges- Patel.

Actress in a Supporting Role Nominees: Viola Davis — Naomie Harris — Nicole Kidman — Octavia Spencer — Michelle Williams

Personal Pick: Viola Davis CORRECT
Academy Pick: Michelle Williams
Underdog Steal: Naomie Harris

The Snot Cry… That is all… But in all seriousness, Viola Davis has every right to this win similarly to Denzel. These two performed their souls out of their bodies and it was brilliant to watch… I could understand the Academy favoring Michelle Williams more-so but that would also be fine with me because she would be my second pick to the award.

Animated Feature Film Nominees: Kubo and the Two Strings — Moana — My Life as a Zucchini — The Red Turtle — Zootopia

Personal Pick: Kubo and the Two Strings
Academy Pick: Zootopia CORRECT
Underdog Steal: Moana

‘Kubo and the Two Strings’ was a masterpiece to me. One of the only films I could possibly rate being perfect. But, alas, it will not win. No other film will win besides ‘Zootopia’ because the Academy has a hard-on (sorry for my unprofessionalism) for it because “diversity”. I am sorry, the best all-around picture should be awarded more than a movie with meaning and I would choose Kubo or ‘Moana’ years before I would think ‘Zootopia’ should.

Cinematography Nominees: Arrival — La La Land — Lion — Moonlight — Silence

Personal Pick: Arrival
Academy Pick: La La Land CORRECT
Underdog Steal: Lion

‘Arrival’ was just beautiful. There were certain sequences in this film that I will remember forever. The way it was done, the beauty in the panning shots of the nature around the spacecraft, the shots inside of the spacecraft. I was just perfect.

Costume Design Nominees: Allied — Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them — Florence Foster Jenkins — Jackie — La La Land

Personal Pick: La La Land
Academy Pick: La La Land
Underdog Steal: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them WIN

Directing Nominees: Arrival — Hacksaw Ridge — La La Land — Manchester by the Sea — Moonlight

Personal Pick: Hacksaw Ridge
Academy Pick: La La Land CORRECT
Underdog Steal: Moonlight

Between this and the Lead Actor category, these are the two I feel strongly could beat ‘La La Land’. Although I am a HUGE Damien Chazelle fan and would not be opposed to him winning; Mel Gibson just worked magic for ‘Hacksaw Ridge’ and rightfully deserves this one.

Documentary Nominees: Fire at Sea — I Am Not Your Negro — Life, Animated — O.J.: Made in America — 13th

Personal Pick: I Am Not Your Negro
Academy Pick: I Am Not Your Negro
Underdog Steal: O.J.: Made in America WIN

No knowledge in this category, simply guesses.

Documentary (Short Subject) Nominees: Extremis — 4.1 Miles — Joe’s Violin — Watani: My Homeland — The White Helmets

Personal Pick: Extremis WRONG The White Helmets
Academy Pick: Watani: My Homeland
Underdog Steal: Joe’s Violin

No knowledge

Film Editing Nominees: Arrival — Hacksaw Ridge — Hell or High Water — La La Land — Moonlight

Personal Pick: Arrival
Academy Pick: La La Land
Underdog Steal: Hacksaw Ridge WIN

Foreign Language Film Nominees: Land of Mine — A Man Called Ove — The Salesman — Tanna — Toni Erdmann

Personal Pick: The Salesman CORRECT
Academy Pick: The Salesman
Underdog Steal: A Man Called Ove

Simply because of the controversy.

Makeup and Hairstyling Nominees: A Man Called Ove — Star Trek Beyond — Suicide Squad (Yes… You read that right.)

Personal Pick: Star Trek Beyond WRONG Suicide Squad
Academy Pick: Star Trek Beyond
Underdog Steal: A Man Called Ove

Are you kidding me? ‘Suicide Squad’. Are you effing kidding me? If Squad wins, I riot.
*Edit: Suicide Squad won…. I threw up.

Music (Original Score) Nominees: Jackie — La La Land — Lion — Moonlight — Passengers

Personal Pick: La La Land CORRECT
Academy Pick: La La Land
Underdog Steal: Moonlight

No contest, it is ‘La La Land’ easily for me. Although ‘Moonlight’ had a fantastic score too, ‘La La Land’ is just too strong.

Music (Original Song) Nominees: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” La La Land — “Can’t Stop the Feeling” Trolls — “City of Stars” La La Land — “The Empty Chair” Jim: The James Foley… — “How Far I’ll Go” Moana

Personal Pick: City of Stars CORRECT
Academy Pick: City of Stars
Underdog Steal: Can’t Stop the Feeling

Two ‘La La Land’ songs in one category? That is just not fair. But no matter, ‘City of Stars’ is beautiful. It is addictive. It is going to win. But the Academy does love Timberlake so definitely watch for him… Special shoutout to “You’re Welcome” by Dwayne Johnson in ‘Moana’. I’d vote for that in a heartbeat.

Production Design Nominees: Arrival — Fantastic Beasts and What to Find Them — Hail, Caesar! — La La Land — Passengers

Personal Pick: Arrival
Academy Pick: La La Land CORRECT
Underdog Steal: Passengers

Short Film (Animated) Nominees: Blind Vaysha — Borrowed Time — Pear Cider and Cigarettes — Pearl — Piper

Personal Pick: Piper CORRECT
Academy Pick: Blind Vaysha
Underdog Steal: Pearl

I LOVE THAT BIRD

Short Film (Live Action) Nominees: Ennemis Intérieurs — La Femme et le TGV — Silent Nights — Sing — Timecode

Personal Pick: Sing CORRECT
Academy Pick: La Femme et le TGV
Underdog Steal: Silent Nights

No knowledge

Sound Editing Nominees: Arrival — Deepwater Horizon — Hacksaw Ridge — La La Land — Sully

Personal Pick: Hacksaw Ridge WRONG Arrival
Academy Pick: Hacksaw Ridge
Underdog Steal: Deepwater Horizon

Sound Mixing Nominees: Arrival — Hacksaw Ridge — La La Land — Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Personal Pick: Arrival
Academy Pick: Hacksaw Ridge CORRECT
Underdog Steal: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Visual Effects Nominees: Deepwater Horizon — Doctor Strange — The Jungle Book — Kubo and the Two Strings — Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Personal Pick: Kubo and the Two Strings
Academy Pick: The Jungle Book CORRECT
Underdog Steal: Doctor Strange

What an insanely tough category. Each one of these are so strong in effects. I honestly would not be disapproving no matter which one would win. I have my favorites in Kubo and Strange but all are great.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay) Nominees: Arrival — Fences — Hidden Figures — Lion — Moonlight

Personal Pick: Fences
Academy Pick: Hidden Figures
Underdog Steal: Moonlight WIN

Writing (Original Screenplay) Nominees: Hell or High Water — La La Land — The Lobster — Manchester by the Sea — 20th Century Women

Personal Pick: La La Land WRONG Manchester by the Sea
Academy Pick: La La Land
Underdog Steal: 20th Century Women

Damien Chazelle, man.

That is everything, folks! If you have Twitter, I will be live tweeting the show from my account @OberratedReview! And as always, want to discuss? Let’s talk! See ya’ll then.

References:
http://oscar.go.com/nominees

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